Estimation of the number of excavating jobs using Markov chain

Abstract

A contractor planning to excavation jobs is a very unpredictable operation. How many excavation jobs a contractor can perform in a specific period remains uncertain. The number of excavation jobs per a certain period is a purely stochastic problem, and is affected by lot of uncertain events. Thus, this project models the excavation operation using Markov Chains. the Markov Chain develops probability matrices that predicts a stochastic number of excavation jobs per month. Data were collected from sixteen different sites and mainly used to estimate the probability of duration required to excavate a specific area. Probability distribution of the excavation durations per area of excavation are developed. Then the probabilities were used to develop the Markov Chain transition matrices. Finally plots of prediction curves are developed. This project helps contractors plan their excavation work load for a period of time.