Assessing Lebanon's wildfire potential in association with current and future climatic conditions

Abstract

The increasing occurrence and extent of large-scale wildfires in the Mediterranean have been linked to extended periods of warm and dry weather. We set out to assess Lebanon's wildfire potential in association with current and future climatic conditions. The Keetch-Byram Drought Index (KBDI) was the primary climate variable used in our evaluation of climate/fire interactions and conditions. A comparison between the average monthly values (2006-2010) of the Fire Weather Index (FWI) for Eastern Mediterranean and the monthly KBDI average values for Lebanon showed a strong correlation, indicating wildfire potential has increased during the fire season (March through September). The comparison between the relative areas of current and future wildfire potentials showed a significant increase in KBDI values (more than 50) affecting a total area of 1143 km2 (441.3 sq mi).