Earthquake loss estimation : Ehden village

Abstract

Lebanon is located in a high seismicity zone, and as a result earthquakes are a potential threat for the country. Historically several damaging earthquakes have affected Lebanon, with the most recent event occurred in 1759 (Magnitude: 7.4). This factor, along with high densely populated areas of poor constructed structures, could lead to a tragic scenario. Since the seismic events cannot be avoided, earthquake loss estimations are needed in order to identify possible future impacts, minimize existing risks and improve safety. Although predicting the time, place, and magnitude of earthquakes is not possible, their potential to do damage and loss can be. We propose to apply the MAEviz earthquake loss estimation software to study the impact of possible damaging historical and future earthquakes based on the historic seismicity of Lebanon. The impact of the earthquakes is studied for Ehden town in North Lebanon. The MAEviz earthquake model is standardized methodology providing direct and indirect loss estimates of damage and loss to buildings, essential facilities, transportation and utility lifelines, and population based on scenario or probabilistic earthquakes. In this project, only loss to buildings are studied. We believe that the results of this investigation are of great practical interest and will find their application in the natural hazard and disasters loss estimations.