A feasibility study for a sustainable public transit network linking Tripoli to Beirut cities in Lebanon

Abstract

Due to the increasing population and number of cars for a small and limited space country, Lebanon is facing a major traffic congestion problem. The Lebanese ministry of interior affairs has reported that 1.8 million cars exist in Lebanon, whereas its total population is around 4 million. The Lebanese ministry of environment reported in its 2nd national communication in 2011 to the United Nations framework convention on climate change (UNFCCC) that the transportation sector contributed in the year 2000 alone to 29% of the total carbon dioxide (CO2) energy related emissions and 22% of the total green house gas (GHG) emissions. Furthermore, the economic and social commission for western Asia (ESCWA) report, published in 2011, recommends measures and policies to be adopted in Western Asia to tend towards a sustainable transportation systems. On the other hand, the Lebanese government is unable to face this major problem and to find a sustainable solution for its air environment quality. This research proposes public transportation as a sustainable solution. The main objective of this research is to perform an economic feasibility study using 'life cycle cost analysis (LCCA) method for a railway network linking Tripoli to Beirut cities. Two alternatives are proposed: alternative 1: an underground subway network; and alternative 2 an aboveground railway network. The LCCA applies the 'benefit-to-cost (B/C) ratio for governmental projects in order to evaluate the two alternatives. The economic evaluation advises that both alternatives are feasible; however alternative 2 is preferred and more profitable. A sensitivity analysis is also performed in order to evaluate the effect of uncertainties of benefits, costs and discount rate on the decision. It is observed that a big decrease in the benefits significantly change the B/C ratio of alternative 1, while the alternative 2 remains feasible.