Evaluating fire risk associated with repetetive armed conflicts

Abstract

Direct and indirect effects of armed conflicts are often visible on the landscape and are manifested as changes in the environment. Such changes make vegetated areas more susceptible to degradation, which can lead to an increased risk of fires. The aim of this work was to assess fire risk associated with repetitive armed conflicts on the coastal zone in North Lebanon. A number of armed conflict events (dating between 1982 and 2008) which are deemed as hazards to the communities and the environment on the coastal area of North-Lebanon were considered in this study. The methodology of work involved the use of five multi-temporal Landsat (MSS and TM) imageries acquired between 1975 and 2010. The Object-Based Image Analysis (OBIA) approach was employed in this work. The satellite images were segmented and then classified incorporating contextual and semantic information. This involved the use of image object attributes and the relationship between networked image objects of the different Landsat images. The fire risk classes were associated to the degree of negative changes (e.g. forest fires) and positive changes (e.g. vegetation recovery) in the green cover using information from images taken before and after each conflict event. A fire risk map was produced comprising five classes, namely, ―No risk‖, ―Low risk‖, ―Moderate risk‖, ―High risk‖ and ―Water‖. Data from field surveys showed that the fire risk pattern reflected many of the direct and indirect effects of the repetitive armed conflicts on vegetated areas. There has been a major displacement of populations in areas affected by armed conflicts which contributed to increasing the vulnerability of the surrounding green cover. In addition, agriculture areas suffered from the interruption in the labor supply and the inaccessibility of some farming fields. This increased the risk of fire, especially within areas which sustained the largest amount of landcover/landuse change. Further investigation of the results showe.