The calculation of Lebanon's greenhouse gaz (GHG) emissions and removals from the Land Use, Land-Use Change and Forestry (LULUCF) sector : a trend analysis for the period 1994-2012

Abstract

The Land Use, Land-Use Change and Forestry (LULUCF) sector, one of six sectors included in national GHG inventories, is the only sector that has the potential to be a sink and source of GHGs rather than just a source, due to its ability to sequestrate carbon. Since the ratification of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) in 1994, Lebanon has submitted two National Communications (NCs). Both NCs had mentioned that the results from the GHG inventories of the LULUCF sector were not fully reliable because information used to develop the inventory was insufficient at the time. The years for which the inventory of the LULUCF sector was calculated in the two NCs were 1994 and 2004, consecutively. The aim of this work was to calculate the GHG emissions and removals of the LULUCF sector in Lebanon for the years 2005 up to 2012 on a yearly basis, as well as to re-calculate the GHG emissions and removals for the years 1994 until 2004 based on new available information. This included: 1) Reviewing the GHG emissions estimation methods as per the Good Practice Guidance for Land Use, Land-Use Change, and Forestry (GPG LULUCF); 2) Calculating GHG emissions and removals as per the GPG LULUCF and data availability; 3) Implementing a trend analysis of the years 1994-2012; 4) Including a complete documentation and archiving all information and calculations. The methodology used for estimating the GHG emissions and removals was based on the GPG LULUCF. Accordingly, annual changes in carbon stocks in the relevant carbon pools of the land use and land-use change categories were calculated. The data collection comprised different sources, namely change detection maps using satellite imageries, the available literature, and national reports, among others. The emission factors and other parameters used were obtained from global databases, studies, surveys, personal communications, and from the GPG LULUCF. An Uncertainty Assessment of the results was also carried out according to the guidelines provided by the GPG LULUCF. At all years of the inventory, the net change of carbon stocks in the LULUCF sector was a net removal of GHGs. The general trend observed was a continuous decrease in removals, whereby net removals decreased from 1994 to 2012 by 12.03%. On one hand, the sum of all GHG emissions from carbon pools which were a source of GHGs amounted to 80.23 Gg of CO2 eq. in 1994 and increased to 517.34 Gg of CO2 eq. in 2012. On the other hand, the sum of all GHG removals from carbon pools, which were a sink of carbon, amounted to 3,531.08 Gg of CO2 eq. in 1994 and slightly increased in 2012 to amount to 3,552.98 Gg of CO2 eq. The biomass increment in "Forest lands" was the largest carbon sink, followed by the growth in perennial woody crops. Fires in perennial woody "Croplands" were the largest emitters followed by land conversions to "Settlements" and forest fires consequently. Although Lebanons LULUCF sector was, at all inventory years, a net sink, the decreasing trend of net removals did not seem to stabilize towards the end of the inventory. Afforestation efforts were not enough to compensate the decrease in removals from fires on "Croplands" and "Forest lands" and from "Land converted to Settlements". These findings should be the basis for looking into developing strategies for mitigation and better management of land resources.