How google trends can affect the return of different cryptocurencies [sic] cryptocurrencies : application of autoregressive distributed lag model

Abstract

In this paper, we are trying to check the effect of google trends searches amount on the return of 5 different cryptocurrencies: Bitcoin, Dash, Litecoin, Stellar and XRP. And Autoregressive Distributed Lag Model (ARDL) approach was used in this paper which will allow us to overcome the problem of our tested series being non-stationary in the long run. Our study was done using weekly google trends data and weekly cryptocurrencys returns data for a 5 years period from November 2014 until November 2019. Stellar had the highest returns the highest average during these 5 years but being at the same time the most volatile Cryptocurrency, while Bitcoin being the least volatile and thus the safest cryptocurrency to invest on. The ARDL approach was successfully applied using our abovementioned data where we found results showing that Dash and Bitcoin returns are the most affected by the google trends searches amount, while Litecoin and XRP are less affected by these trends and finally Stellar returns were never significantly affected by these returns being the most efficient Cryptocurrency among these 5.